Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

3G network traffic sources measurement and analysis

In this paper, we show statistical analyses of several types of traffic sources in a 3G network, namely voice, video and data sources. For each traffic source type, measurements were collected in order to, on the one hand, gain better understanding of the statistical characteristics of the sources and, on the other hand, enable forecasting traffic behaviour in the network. The latter can be used to estimate service times and quality of service parameters. The probability density function, mean, variance, mean square deviation, skewness and kurtosis of the interarrival times are estimated by Wolfram Mathematica and Crystal Ball statistical tools. Based on evaluation of packet interarrival times, we show how the gamma distribution can be used in network simulations and in evaluation of available capacity in opportunistic systems. As a result, from our analyses, shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution are generated. Data can be applied also in dynamic network configuration in order to avoid potential network congestions or overflows. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of two traits of the ecological state equation on our understanding of species coexistence and ecosystem services

Species coexistence has been a fundamental issue to understand ecosystem functioning since the beginnings of ecology as a science. The search of a reliable and all-encompassing explanation for this issue has become a complex goal with several apparently opposing trends. On the other side, seemingly unconnected with species coexistence, an ecological state equation based on the inverse correlation between an indicator of dispersal that fits gamma distribution and species diversity has been recently developed. This article explores two factors, whose effects are inconspicuous in such an equation at the first sight, that are used to develop an alternative general theoretical background in order to provide a better understanding of species coexistence. Our main outcomes are: (i) the fit of dispersal and diversity values to gamma distribution is an important factor that promotes species coexistence mainly due to the right-skewed character of gamma distribution; (ii) the opposite correlation between species diversity and dispersal implies that any increase of diversity is equivalent to a route of “ecological cooling” whose maximum limit should be constrained by the influence of the third law of thermodynamics; this is in agreement with the well-known asymptotic trend of diversity values in space and time; (iii) there are plausible empirical and theoretical ways to apply physical principles to explain important ecological processes; (iv) the gap between theoretical and empirical ecology in those cases where species diversity is paradoxically high could be narrowed by a wave model of species coexistence based on the concurrency of local equilibrium states. In such a model, competitive exclusion has a limited but indispensable role in harmonious coexistence with functional redundancy. We analyze several literature references as well as ecological and evolutionary examples that support our approach, reinforcing the meaning equivalence between important physical and ecological principles.

Pharmacokinetics and excretion of gamma-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) in healthy subjects

In Europe and the United States, the recreational use of gamma-hydroxy butyric acid (GHB) at dance clubs and "rave" parties has increased substantially. In addition, GHB is used to assist in the commission of sexual assaults. The aim of this controlled clinical study was to acquire pharmacokinetic profiles, detection times, and excretion rates in human subjects. Eight GHB-naïve volunteers were administered a single 25-mg/kg body weight oral dose of GHB, and plasma, urine, and oral fluid specimens were analyzed by using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Liquid-liquid extraction was performed after acid conversion of GHB to gamma-butyrolactone. Limits of quantitation of 0.1 (oral fluid), 0.2 (urine), and 0.5 microg/mL (plasma) could be achieved in the selected ion monitoring mode. GHB plasma peaks of 39.4 +/- 25.2 microg/mL (mean +/- SEM) occurred 20-45 min after administration. The terminal plasma elimination half-life was 30.4 +/- 2.45 min, the distribution volume 52.7 +/- 15.0 L, and the total clearance 1228 +/- 233 microL/min. In oral fluid, GHB could be detected up to 360 min, with peak concentrations of 203 +/- 92.4 microg/mL in the 10-min samples. In urine, 200 +/- 71.8 and 230 +/- 86.3 microg/mL, were the highest GHB levels measured at 30 and 60 min, respectively. Only 1.2 +/- 0.2% of the dose was excreted, resulting in a detection window of 720 min. Common side-effects were confusion, sleepiness, and dizziness; euphoria and change of vital functions were not observed. GHB is extensively metabolized and rapidly eliminated in urine and oral fluid. Consequently, samples should be collected as soon as possible after ingestion.

A four moments theorem for Gamma limits on a Poisson chaos

This paper deals with sequences of random variables belonging to a fixed chaos of order q generated by a Poisson random measure on a Polish space. The problem is investigated whether convergence of the third and fourth moment of such a suitably normalized sequence to the third and fourth moment of a centred Gamma law implies convergence in distribution of the involved random variables. A positive answer is obtained for q = 2 and q = 4. The proof of this four moments theorem is based on a number of new estimates for contraction norms. Applications concern homogeneous sums and U-statistics on the Poisson space.